Black Friday weekend remains the unofficial kickoff to the holidays and is an important tradition for millions of shoppers across the country. There is no indication that this will change in the foreseeable future.

“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. Consumers are in good financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season."


The top reasons consumers are planning to shop during Thanksgiving include:

The deals are too good to pass up (65 percent)
Tradition (28 percent)
It's when they like to start their holiday shopping (22 percent)
It's something to do over the holiday (21 percent)
It's a group activity with friends/family (17 percent)

Of those planning to shop, there is an almost even split of people who plan to start their shopping in-store (47 percent) compared with those who plan to start online (41 percent).

Overall, holiday sales represent about 20 percent of annual retail sales each year, but the figure can be higher for some retailers. Hobby, toy and game stores report the highest share at about 30 percent.

Winter Holidays (not Christmas)

NRF’s holiday surveys gauge consumer sentiment and shopping trends during the winter holiday season, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, Super Saturday and Christmas.


Half of holiday shoppers have already started
56 percent of consumers asked during the first week of November had already begun their holiday shopping, about the same as the past few years.
Consumers plan to purchase three or four gift cards on average at an average $47 per card for a total of $27.5 billion.

Barbie remains the top toy for girls this year. For boys, LEGO tops the list.


Thanksgiving weekend preview
More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day weekend
Younger consumers are significantly more likely to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend. Among those ages 18-24, 88 percent say they are likely to shop and particularly enjoy the social aspect. Similarly, 84 percent of those ages 25-34 plan to shop.


Holiday shoppers plan to spend 4 percent more this year
Consumers say they will spend an average of $1,047.83 this holiday season
Shoppers between the ages of 35 and 44 plan to spend the most at $1,158.63

NRF forecasts holiday sales will grow between 3.8 and 4.2 percent. Holiday sales will increase to a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion this year, excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11 percent and 14 percent to between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion, up from $146.5 billion in 2018

Helpful, knowledgeable customer service 28%
Quality of merchandise 59%
Selection of merchandise 57%
Sales or price discounts 70%
Convenient location 44%
Everyday low prices 39%
No hassle return policy 32%
Free shipping / shipping promotions 46%
Easy-to-use website or mobile site 30%
Layaway services 5%
Other 1%